Another View on Climate

My Own View of Global Warming

Comments are Bad for Science

Posted by greg2213 on September 25, 2013

Yes, they really said that. 

Comments can be bad for science. That’s why, here at, we’re shutting them off.


“A politically motivated, decades-long war on expertise has eroded the popular consensus on a wide variety of scientifically validated topics. Everything, from evolution to the origins of climate change, is mistakenly up for grabs again. Scientific certainty is just another thing for two people to “debate” on television. And because comments sections tend to be a grotesque reflection of the media culture surrounding them, the cynical work of undermining bedrock scientific doctrine is now being done beneath our own stories, within a website devoted to championing science.”

Bad for science? Sure, if “science” is a dogmatic academic elite that feels its pronouncements from on high should never be questioned. Even when they change their opinion next week. We mere peons should never be allowed to comments. 

Actually, I suspect that commenting is fine as long as it isn’t on certain sacred subjects. 

“Everything, from evolution to the origins of climate change…” Seems to me that since a huge number of people don’t believe in evolution they should give that disbelief more respect, since it’s a popular consensus in that group. 

Popular Consensus? Since when was since based on popularity? Besides, in their denial they forget that the large majority of scientists disagrees with their “popular conclusions.” 

Of course, the real reason is probably “climate change” and that they are tired of being unable to defend their mythical dogma on that subject. 

Here’s the whole post:

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Debunking the Debunkers – Abrupt Climate Change

Posted by greg2213 on July 8, 2013

The Bad Astronomer took issue with an Op Ed, by Matt Ridley, in the WSJ. Unfortunately (for the BA) Ridley follows the evidence, not the consensus, and CAGW loses on the evidence (big time.)

It’s on WUWT

Here’s a comment from Mr. Ridley.

Here’s a cool comment from the WUWT page discussing inconvenient climat events over the last few thousand years, something that few alarmists have any idea have occurred. (I added the clickable links.)


Jimbo says:

Last week a friend chided me for not agreeing with the scientific consensus that climate change is likely to be dangerous.

Your friend was absolutely right about “climate change is likely to be dangerous”. It is a danger to humans and the biosphere. Loooooord help us. Below are the effects of dangerous climate change over the Holocene. Man be damned, we must act now.

Abstract – E. Davis et. al.- September 2006
An Andean ice-core record of a Middle Holocene mega-drought in North Africa and Asia

A large dust peak, dated ~4500 years ago, is contemporaneous with a widespread and prolonged drought that apparently extended from North Africa to eastern China, evidence of which occurs in historical, archeological and paleoclimatic records. This event may have been associated with several centuries of weak Asian/Indian/African monsoons, possibly linked with a protracted cooling in the North Atlantic…..
Abstract – Steven L. Forman et. al. – May 2001
Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links
Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Niña-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America.
Abstract – Hamish McGowan et. al. – 28 November 2012
Evidence of ENSO mega-drought triggered collapse of prehistory Aboriginal society in northwest Australia
…..Here we show that a mid-Holocene ENSO forced collapse of the Australian summer monsoon and ensuing mega-drought spanning approximately 1500 yrs …..
doi: 10.1029/2012GL053916
Abstract – B. Van Geel et. al. – 17 January 2007
Archaeological and palaeoecological indications of an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands, and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP
….Evidence for a synchronous climatic change elsewhere in Europe and on other continents around 2650 BP is presented…..
doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199611
Abstract – Martin Jakobsson et. al. – December 2010
Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice…..
Abstract – Samuli Helama et. al. – 13 October 2008
Multicentennial megadrought in northern Europe coincided with a global El Niño–Southern Oscillation drought pattern during the Medieval Climate Anomaly
doi: 10.1130/G25329A.1
Abstract – Richard B. Alleya et. al. – May 2005
The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change
Abstract – Scott Stine – 16 June 1994
Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time
California’s Sierra Nevada experienced extremely severe drought conditions for more than two centuries before ad ~ 1112 and for more than 140 years before ad ~ 1350…I also present similar evidence from Patagonia of drought conditions coinciding with at least the first of these dry periods in California….
Abstract – Martin Claussen et. al. – 7 December 2012
Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the Mid-Holocene

Climate variability during the present interglacial, the Holocene, has been rather smooth in comparison with the last glacial. Nevertheless, there were some rather abrupt climate changes. One of these changes, the desertification of the Saharan and Arabian region some 4–6 thousand years ago,….
doi: 10.1029/1999GL900494
Abstract – Brian F. Cumming et. al. – 2 December 2002,
Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia
…After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years….
Abstract – Connie A. Woodhouse et. al. – December 1998
2000 Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States
…..One must turn to the paleoclimatic record to examine the full range of past drought variability, including the range of magnitude and duration, and thus gain the improved understanding needed for society to anticipate and plan for droughts of the future. Historical documents, tree rings, archaeological remains, lake sediment, and geomorphic data make it clear that the droughts of the twentieth century, including those of the 1930s and 1950s, were eclipsed several times by droughts earlier in the last 2000 years, and as recently as the late sixteenth century. In general, some droughts prior to 1600 appear to be characterized by longer duration (i.e., multidecadal) and greater spatial extent than those of the twentieth century……;2
Abstract – T. M. Shanahan – 17 April 2009
Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa
…We find that intervals of severe drought lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures. Thus the severe drought of recent decades is not anomalous in the context of the past three millennia,…..
doi: 10.1126/science.1166352
Abstract – Fahu Chen et. al. – December 2001
Abrupt Holocene changes of the Asian monsoon at millennial- and centennial-scales: Evidence from lake sediment document in Minqin Basin, NW China
These rapid climatic changes may be representative of a global climatic change pattern during the Holocene.
doi: 10.1007/BF02901902

Here are the effects of dangerous CARBON DIOXIDE, a noxious dioxide.

Randall J. Donohue et. al. – 31 May, 2013
CO2 fertilisation has increased maximum foliage cover across the globe’s warm, arid environments

[1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the ‘CO2 fertilization’ effect – the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels – is yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982–2010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analysed to remove the effect of variations in rainfall, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilisation effect is now a significant land surface process.


More About Abrupt Climate Change

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Just in Case ANyonThought the IPCC Was About Science

Posted by greg2213 on June 15, 2013

Well it’s been pretty obvious to anyone who are, for quite some time, that the IPC is about Politics first, agenda second. There’s the scientific report and then there’s the summary report, which is what the Pols of the various countries see. This has nothing to do with the science.


According to those who’ve attended similar meetings, “every sentence” will be projected onto a screen “in front of representatives of more than 100 governments” who will then argue about it. Eventually, these political animals will collectively negotiate wording that everyone can live with. Then they will move on to the next sentence.

Yes, you read that right. The exact phrasing of what is supposed to be a summary of scientific evidence will be determined not by scientists but via political negotiations.

Read it all, here.

Unfortunately, this will convince no one who is in any position of influence or who already sees the IPCC as the second coming of Al Gore.


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Abrupt Climate Change Over the Last 15,000 Years.

Posted by greg2213 on June 2, 2013

Alarmists love to call the modern warming “unprecedented.” This is pretty hysterical given that number of much larger and more abrupt changes over the years. The .5 to .8C over the last 150 years just doesn’t compare.

And all of those other changes (warming and cooling) were without benefit of significant CO2 changes. Thi sis another nail in the coffin of the “CO2 is the primary cause of CC” argument.

On, WUWT, the conclusion: 

(1) The ice core isotope data were hugely significant because they showed that the Younger Dryas, as well as the other late Pleistocene warming and cooling events, could not possibly be caused by human emissions of CO2 because they occurred thousands of years before such emissions had any effect on atmospheric CO2.

(2) The magnitude and intensity of multiple climatic fluctuations has been up to 20 times larger than warming during the past century.

(3) Single events, i.e., volcanic activity or cosmic impacts, cannot have caused the abrupt Dansgaard/Oerscher warming and cooling events because of the multiplicity of warm/cold events over periods of thousands of years.

(4) The absence of a time lag between the N and S Hemisphere glacial fluctuations precludes an oceanic cause and is not consistent with the North Atlantic Deep Ocean Water hypothesis for the cause of the Younger Dryas.

(5) The abruptness of the climate changes and their multiplicity could not have been caused by slow, Croll-Milankovitch orbital forcing, which occurs over many tens of thousands of years. Since fluctuations to and from full glacial climates occurred over short periods of time, clearly a cause other than the Croll-Milankovitch theory is capable of causing the Ice Ages .

The whole article is here.

The modern warming compared to prior warmings:

(see the full article for details.)

a-nice-graph Links:

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Posted in Cycles, Temerature Records | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Do Cosmic Rays Aid in Lightning Creation?

Posted by greg2213 on May 17, 2013

The actual mechanisms of how lightning works have been eluding scientists for a very long time. Here’s a new idea that might explain some of it.

Cosmic rays interacting with water droplets within thunderclouds could play an important role in initiating lightning strikes. That is the claim of researchers in Russia, who have studied the radio signals emitted during thousands of lightning strikes. The work could provide new insights into how and why lightning occurs in the first place.

New insights into what triggers lightning


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Is there a Greenhouse Effect?

Posted by greg2213 on May 13, 2013

Atmospheric physicists disagree.

Both sides claim the other doesn’t know their thermodynamics. (Is that why I heard it called ThermoGodDammics in college?)

Nice article on how greenhouses (real ones) really work.

On Facebook, for more “discussion:”

I don’t have the physics or the math to really dig into it and I’m just going to sit back and read the stuff as it comes to my attention. However, I do suspect that a lot of the “discussion” is due to poor choice of terminology and a smearing of definitions.

For example: Can a cooler object warm a warmer object? You’ll be warmer inside your Igloo than you will be outside of it and you’ll be warmer in a nice coat or blanket than without. Yet all are cooler than you and they still “warm” you. But does the atmosphere and IR work the same way?

I think everyone agrees the the atmosphere is warmer with an atmosphere than without, right? And with much less day/night variation than it would have with no atmosphere (eg: the moon.)

And from there it gets more interesting… :)

So, I’m going to link to the “Yes!” and “No!” posts as I find them. This post will be updated periodically. Perhaps a conclusion or common ground will be reached, someday. Till then, I’m reaching for the popcorn.

(update note: I’m on the “yes” side, though “greenhouse” is a lousy term.)

(Another update note: Can a “greenhouse gas,” in theory, back-radiate to warm the surface? Yes. (See below.) Does it? I say yes. Is CO2 a significant player in this? No, water vapor vastly overwhelms CO2.)

Yes, There IS a GH Effect.

Dr. Roy Spencer has challenged the Slayers (of the GH effect theory, to either “put up or shut up.”

Eschenbach on the The R. W. Wood Experiment

No, There is NOT a GH Effect

Principia Scientific responds to Dr. Spencer’s challenge.

Climate of Sophistry responds to Eschenbach



Radical New Hypothesis on the Effect of Greenhouse Gases: Michael Hammer, an engineer who specializes in spectroscopy, is also sceptical of the GCM but his criticism is more fundamental.  In the following paper, using the basic laws of spectroscopy, he shows that a significant portion of energy loss from the Earth’s surface is by direction radiation to space at wavelengths not absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Convection, Venus, Thought Experiments and Tall Rooms Full of Gas – A Discussion
 Luboš Motl: SciAm, Gavin Schmidt despise climate facts American Thinker: The Hidden Flaw in Greenhouse Theory
On WUWT: Simple experiment shows that a hotter object can, in fact, be warmed by a cooler one. Light bulb experiment. two

I think this sums it up very nicely. 

OldWeirdHarold says: (wuwt comment, from the light bulb experiment) May 28, 2013 at 9:51 am

Years ago, in a statistical mechanics lesson in P-chem, the prof, after wading through an insufferable derivation, drew an interesting conclusion. In a hurricane, over 40% of the molecules are moving against the direction of the wind. If they were all moving the the same direction, they’d be moving at the speed of sound.

The conceptual error that the Skydragons are making is failing to distinguish between individual dynamics and population dynamics. Just as a large percentage of the molecules in a hurricane move against the wind, a large percentage of the photons can and do move counter to the net heat flow, which implies moving counter to the thermal gradient.

The Second Law is an emergent phenomenon that applies to populations. It doesn’t apply to individual particles.

And this: 

(link) GE R&D center developed an incandescent bulb back in the late 1980′s (and GE lighting commercialized it in the 1990′s) that placed a spherical clear glass shell around the filament. The shell was coated with a multilayer (anywhere from 15 – 30 separate layers) optical filter that reflects mid infrared back onto the filament, while allowing visible light to pass through. The result is that a lower filament current can achieve the same filament temperature, thanks to the mid infrared energy being reflected back to the filament. This results in a 15% – 20% increase in lumens/Watt.

GE’s research into IR reflecting films

And I think this one ends the discussion about “back-radiation.”

It is well known that the efficiency of incandescent lamps could be greatly increased if the radiated energy in the near IR region could be returned to the tungsten filament and REABSORBED.

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A Dose of Reality for Alternative Energy

Posted by greg2213 on May 5, 2013

And that dose of reality is the fossil fuel that needed to make it real. The rare earths that are required which just switch our dependencies from one country to the other. The large amount of diesel fuel that’s required to ship pieces from one place to another.

Checxk this our from

Consider this oddball energy scheme. A tree is cut down in British Columbia with a diesel-fueled chainsaw. The trunk is transported on a truck, also running on diesel, to a sawmill. An automated production line makes a load of woodchips for a 5,000-kilometer delivery by diesel train or truck to an East Coast port.

Then more fossil fuel-burning transportation machinery ships the chips across the Atlantic Ocean and Europe to a power plant which is mandated to produce 20 per cent renewable energy. These wood chips are officially considered carbon neutral and the energy they produce is called clean.

It’s being done because under current regulations it makes sense economically. But as a way to attain environmental goals that inspire policies like the 20 per cent renewable energy requirement, it is a disaster. Not only is the wood-chip scheme far from carbon neutral, it is not going to improve energy security and only deepens the dependence on the fossil fuels it is supposed to replace.


Of nine challenges that he describes, one of the biggest is the dependence of renewable energy technology on non-renewable natural resources such as the lithium used to produce car batteries or the rare earths used in LED lights, magnets on windmills and PV panels. Switching energy forms just means trading dependence on Middle Eastern oil for reliance on lithium from Bolivia or Chinese rare earths. China saw its opportunity and has curtailed exports of rare earths in order to force the alternative energy equipment industry to locate there.

Excellent article. Here’s the rest: How to exacerbate a fossil-fuel addiction

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Peer Review and Faking Data

Posted by greg2213 on April 29, 2013

Fist off: Peer Review, for all it’s warts, seems to be the best system we have for proofing papers against the various errors that can creep in. It’s subject to issues ranging from missed errors to “pal-review” to fraud, but what’s the alternative?

But it does need to be “cleaned up.”

From WUWT:

An article in the New York Times chronicles the descent of a sociologist into wholesale fraud. It is worth reading the whole article, because I believe it offers insight into some of the pressures, temptations, and self-rationalizations that many scientists struggle with.

And the full story: from the NT Times


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The Psychology of Expertise, or How we Think

Posted by greg2213 on April 26, 2013

This is a really interesting piece from NoFrakkingConsensus on why predictions, in any field, tend to be so bad and yet we keep making them. And we make them with confidence. A great example is the climate and all the broken predictions (er, um… “projections.”)

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment and decision-making. At 79, he is the author of the 2011 award-winning, best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Since we hear so much about the 2007 Peace Prize that recognized the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it’s worth mentioning that Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002.

When his book first appeared, Kahneman wrote a long essay (3,400 words) for the New York Times magazine. Subtitled The Hazards of Confidence, it’s a fascinating read that doesn’t mention climate change, global warming, or scientists even once. But its insights are highly relevant to the climate debate.

Here’s the rest.

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Sanity in the Media

Posted by greg2213 on March 27, 2013

As time goes on and the CAGW meme breaks down we will be seeing bits of sanity appearing in various traditional media (Main Stream Media, aka MSM.) It’ll probably be awhile before it happens in the US, though. Most US Media is lovingly in bed with the Obama regime and its love for the CAGW hysteria.

Newest notes are on top.


No Virgina, sea level rise (what little there may be of it) is not drowning those islands. WUWT has a pic from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation showing this. Here’s the ABCnews post, at least until they remove it.


May 14 (Reuters) – A melt of ice on Greenland and Antarctica is likely to be less severe than expected this century, limiting sea level rise to a maximum of 69 cm (27 inches), an international study said on Tuesday.

NYT backs off the hysteria by a small bit: Some recent scientific papers have made a splash by claiming that the answer might not be as bad as previously feared. This work — if it holds up — offers the tantalizing possibility that climate change might be slow and limited enough that human society could adapt to it without major trauma.

NoTricksZone adds some commentary to the NYT article, as does WUWT.

From Australia 

SEA level rises triggered by Greenland’s melting glaciers will be far less severe than previously thought, new modelling suggests.

European and US researchers predict the impact on sea levels from the island’s melting glaciers could be as little as 7 per cent of previous projections of more than half a metre.

Here (login is required.)

More from Germany (4/29)

Media outlets in Europe are beginning to question all the global warming claims, especially as Central Europe reels from one of its coldest springs in living memory.

The article is dubbed: Scientists have embarrassed themselves: climate change is not happening.”

Die Zeit Shocks Readers

Now that the global mean temperature curve has drifted out of and below the IPCC’s projected range, panic is breaking out.

The mother of German green weeklies, Die Zeit, appears to be taking measurements at the back of the house in preparation for the installation of a back door! Rahmstorf is back there with them, trying to talk them out of it.

Leading lefty journalist Harald Martenstein of Die Zeit, a weekly that recently portrayed Marc Morano as the Don Corleone of the North American climate denial syndicate, has an amusingly satirical essay on the misfortunes of climate science and modeling: On the surprises of climate change. Hat/tip: klimazwiebel. If you can read German, his essay is a jewel in irony and humor to behold. Effective because few things convey a message better than music or humor.

Martenstein, once a devout believer of the global warming religion, apparently he has been struggling to reconcile the glaring differences between climate expectations and hard reality.

Mother Of German Green Weeklies, Die Zeit, Shocks Readers…Now Casts Doubt On Global Warming!

And in Russia:

Russian Academy Of Sciences Experts Warn Of Imminent Cold Period: “Global Warming Is A Marketing Trick” By P Gosselin on 11. April 2013

The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here links to an article published by Stimme Russlands (Voice of Russia). The article is titled: Die Welt vor einer Eiszeit, in English: The World On The Verge Of An Ice Age.

Reports of global cooling are becoming more frequent. FLASHBACK: 30 experts predict cooling.

You’ll notice that this Voice of Russia report is more than a month old, and so one wonders why it was never picked up by the western mainstream media.

The article writes that Russian scientists are predicting that “a little ice age will begin in 2014“. The article adds….

Here’s the article: Russian Academy Of Sciences Experts Warn Of Imminent Cold Period

Yahoo News: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Last year’s huge drought was a freak of nature that wasn’t caused by man-made global warming, a new federal science study finds.

Scientists say the lack of moisture usually pushed up from the Gulf of Mexico was the main reason for the drought in the nation’s midsection.

Thursday’s report by dozens of scientists from five different federal agencies looked into why forecasters didn’t see the drought coming. The researchers concluded that it was so unusual and unpredictable that it couldn’t have been forecast.

“This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years,” said lead author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Climate change was not a significant part, if any, of the event.”

Report: Global warming didn’t cause big US drought

UK’s Met Office Internal Climate Report Differs from What They Say to the Press.

Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the  Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. This was discussed at the September Board Meeting of the Environment Agency, which Met Office officials attended.

As far as I know, this document, which I obtained through FOI, has never entered the public domain. It is brutally honest in admitting how little the Met’s scientists understand about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year. This is in stark contrast to many of the hyped up claims, made in public statements in the recent past by, among others, the Met Office themselves.

The full document is reproduced below, but there are four particular areas I wish to focus on.

Met Office’s Private Briefing Document For The Environment Agency

Various links to Sane Media from Climate Depothere.

The Economist says that The climate may be heating up less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions than was once thought. But that does not mean the problem is going away

OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar. The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO₂ put there by humanity since 1750. And yet, as James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, observes, “the five-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade.”

Obviously they still believe, but they’re not quite as hysterical as before. Here’s the rest.

A Denmark paper runs a four page spread on the hysteria: 

The Jyllands-Posten piece represents another major step by important elements of the European media in taking a tougher and more critical look at climate science. Prominent climate scientists are speaking out, and the media is handing them the megaphone.

Here it is

The UK’s MailOnline rips into the ridiculous energy policies of the UK politicians. 

He wants to hire yet more civil servants to set up a ‘Heat Network Unit’ to provide ‘expert advice’.
And he wants us to pay for ’100 green apprenticeships’ for ‘young people to work in smallscale renewable technologies’.

What planet is this man living on? He has only to step outside his centrally heated Whitehall office to see that the rest of us are having to struggle through the coldest March for 50 years.

Yet, just when we need heat and light for our homes and workplaces more than ever, we are rapidly heading for by far the most serious energy crisis this country has ever faced.

We learned at the weekend that Britain’s gas supplies have run so perilously low that we could be depending on just two giant tankers imported from the Middle East to heat our homes at a time when world gas prices are soaring.

Last week, we also lost two more of our major coal-fired power stations, forced to close down by an EU pollution directive – leading the head of our second-largest power company, SSE, to warn our generating capacity is being cut back so far that major blackouts may soon be inevitable.

The article really tears into them. Read more here:

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