Another View on Climate

My Own View of Global Warming

Posts Tagged ‘Hansen’

No, The Climate Models Can’t Do That

Posted by greg2213 on May 1, 2011

From the amazing Willis E at WUWT, a James Hansen quote on everyone’s  favorite models:

Total solar irradiance (TSl) is the dominant driver of global climate, whereas both natural and anthropogenic aerosols are climatically important constituents of the atmosphere also affecting global temperature. Although the climate effects of solar variability and aerosols are believed to be nearly comparable to those of the greenhouse gases (GHGs; such as carbon dioxide and methane), they remain poorly quantified and may represent the largest uncertainty regarding climate change. …

The analysis by Hansen et al. (2005), as well as other recent studies (see, e.g., the reviews by Ramaswamy et al. 2001; Kopp et al. 2()05b; Lean et al. 2005; Loeb and Manalo-Smith 2005; Lohmann and Feichter 2005; Pilewskie et al. 2005; Bates et al. 2006; Penner et al. 2006), indicates that the current uncertainties in the TSI and aerosol forcings are so large that they preclude meaningful climate model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change. These uncertainties must be reduced significantly for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be adequately constrained (Schwartz 2004).

here’s the rest: Reality Leaves A Lot To The Imagination

As Mr. E. says, “…it does make it clear that at this point the models are not suitable for use as the basis for billion dollar decisions.”

But they are  suitable if your goals are power and money.

More on the Subject:

A poll of climate scientists, working withing climate research institutes, has some interesting results – Most of them feel that the models aren’t quite there, yet: Fewer than 3 or 4 percent said they “strongly agree” that computer models produce reliable predictions of future temperatures, precipitation, or other weather events.

Posted in Models | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

The Greens Aren’t Very Nice, Are They?

Posted by greg2213 on May 27, 2010

Update 8/6/11:

Recently, radical environmentalists have waged a campaign to stifle free enterprise and economic freedom. Here are some of their recent skirmishes, ranging from crop destruction in Australia to attacks on toy companies like Lego and Disney…

Original Post:

C3 Headlines notes some of the things the alarmists have said about the skeptics. Brings back fond memories of the Spanish Inquisition… I guess they feel their gravy train is being threatened.

From:  Hate Unleashed: What’s Driving The Hate Speech & Violence Threats of Global Warmistas?

  • James Hansen of NASA wanted trials for climate skeptics,  accusing them of high crimes against humanity
  • Robert Kennedy Jr. called climate skeptics traitors
  • Yvo de Boer of the UN called climate skepticism criminally irresponsible
  • David Suzuki called for politicians who ignore climate science to be jailed
  • DeSmogBlog’s James Hoggan wants skeptics treated as war criminals (video)
  • Grist called for Nuremberg trials for skeptics
  • Joe Romm encourages the idea that skeptics will be strangled in their beds
  • A blogger at TPM pondered when it would be acceptable to execute climate deniers
  • Heidi Cullen of The Weather Channel called for skeptical forecasters to be decertified
  • Bernie Sanders compared climate skeptics to Nazi appeasers.
  • [Not to mention Greenpeace declaring that "they know where you live"] Here’s the current page, where Greeenpeace posts its case for “that quote was taken WAY out of context,”  and here’s an article regarding the original post. Hopefully GP took the writer into a dark back room and made it very clear to the fellow that their goal is to win hearts and minds, not spit on them. Personally, I think they took him into the party room and gave him a round of “high-fives.”

ClimateQuotes collects, you guessed it, quotes from other wild and wacky alarmist types. For example, here’s their Al Gore page.

And then, there are various other quotes by various extreme types…

Let’s not forget the 10:10 video. These are such lovely people.

Posted in Big Green, Quotes | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Various Models by James Hansen

Posted by greg2213 on March 26, 2010

I updated my 1934 was/wasn’t post with a page comparing some graphs, by NASA’s James Hansen, that were done then with more recent graphs. It’s interesting how all the updates to those graphs show more warming than before.

Here’s the page with the graphs (and at the bottom of the page is a note showing that Dr. Hansen was an global cooling alarmist before he was a warming alarmist. )

Here’s Dr. Hansen’s 1988 paper describing, among other things, his three climate scenarios: A, B, & C. A projects temperatures with no CO2 abatement, B is a middle ground, and C show major abatement.

I think it’s interesting how scenario C seems to be closest to the real world observations, despite the CO2 increases and lack of abatement.I’m probably reading it all wrong, but it’s still interesting.

Obviously various models have been created and updated since 1988. Most of them seem to make pretty much the same predictions as the A&B scenarios.

Posted in Climate Models | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Errors in Measurement

Posted by greg2213 on February 12, 2010

A generally accepted number for the amount of warming over the last 100 some odd years is .6 +- .2 degrees C. According to surfacestations.org a lot of the stations used to measure temps have an error of >= 2C.

So how the heck do you get an error measurement of 0.2 when your thermometer has an error of +-2.0??

Apparently if you throw a bazillion measurements into the mix the errors tend to cancel each other out. As an extreme, consider this: an atom (or a molecule) is mostly empty space and subatomic particles tend to move somewhat randomly. Yet that baseball bat is very sold, very predictable, and make a nice noise when you hit a homer.

So maybe if we had a million (or several million or maybe 50,000) thermometers scattered all over the world their errors would tend to cancel (some high, some low) and you could get a small error measurement like tenths or hundredths.

But what if there are only a few hundred? Or a few dozen? And what if you calculation software adds a small error of it’s own? Or if that software isn’t perfectly programmed and adds some other error? You certainly won’t get tiny error ranges.

I ask “Where’s the Beef?” and folks offer Holy Hypothetical Cows

Whenever I’ve raised the issue of precision and accuracy drift in GIStemp, the discussion has ended up with folks offering all sorts of reasons why hypothetically you can get a gazillion bits of precision out of a large average of a bazillion things. Then I point out that we have only, at most, 62 values going into the monthly mean (and that done in 2 steps, with opportunities for error and accuracy drift). And that then those values are used for all sorts of other calculations (homogenizing, UHI “correction”, weighting, all sorts of things) before they ever approach the point where they are finally turned into “anomalies”. Even then the method used does not always compare a station with itself. It is more a “basket of oranges” to a “basket of apples”. (And some times there are as few as ONE station forming the “anomaly” for a given GRID box…)

Still, the Hypothetical Cow gets trotted out on stage each time the issue is raised. A Hypothetical Cow, we are told, has near infinite accuracy and precision due to the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers (which, in hypothetical land, can even be applied to small groups of real numbers…)

But this article…

He skewers that cow in the rest of the piece, here: Of Hypothetical Cows and Real Program Accuracy

Here are a couple of other posts on the GISS surface record:

  • The Surface Temp Record is a Mess
  • 1934 Warmer than 1998? Yes, No, Yes, No…
  • Jim Hansen, Chief Alarmist of GISS, says, “…the US time series which (US covering less than 2% of the world) is so noisy and has such a large margin of error that no conclusions can be drawn from it at this point.” Keep in mind that the US series is the gold standard, which means the rest of the world’s measurements are is worse shape.The same article points out that current temps as measured by the surface record are not significantly warmer than the 30s & 40s.

Update:

CRU’s Dr. Jones: CRU’s Jones: Climate data ‘not well organised’ and MWP debate ‘not settled’

Jones says, ““The major datasets mostly agree,” he said. “If some of our critics spent less time criticising us and prepared a dataset of their own, that would be much more constructive.”

How can it be constructive if all critics of Jones’ (and other warmist) work is universally derided as “flat earth thinking?” What really needs to happen is that the proponents of warming need to be a lot more respectful of the skeptics than they are.

Also, the critics have done a lot of work with the data and it’s all over the web (Chefio has a lot of it.) Secondly, if Jone’s work was robust then the criticism wouldn’t be an issue.

Lastly, far more work shows the MWP as at least as warm as today, and maybe as much as 2C (or more) warmer. Very few papers beyond the discredited Hockey Sticks show that it was cooler.

There’s lots of MWP stuff on CO2 Science.

Posted in Surface Record | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Temperature, Measurements, and Engineering

Posted by greg2213 on January 22, 2010

Just a few thoughts on the reliability of measurements and related stuff.

Engineers Vs. Scientists.

There are various papers available, written by Engineers, on the issues with global warming/cooling, aka climate change. Believers typically dismiss them with something like, “But they’re not climate scientists…”

In my view real data (you go out and measure something) always takes precedence over theory. If the data doesn’t match the theory then fix the theory. (I assume that the ruler is accurate and the person holding the ruler is using it both honestly and competently.) Then the data has to be used somehow.

An engineer will take that data and make something that, hopefully, works. For example: NASA builds a probe, launches it, and put it very close to its target point. Whether that point is in Earth’s orbit, or on the moon, or on one of Saturn’s moons the theories used obviously work.

At the other end is the scientist (or organization) who only needs to convince a policy maker of the accuracy of his claims. An extreme example is Al Gore. Gore is certainly not a scientist, he did very poorly in his college science classes, and nothing he said is supported by the science, yet policy is based on that “science.” He’s certainly a very good marketer, presenting to a market that very much wants what he has to sell, so there’s no real need for real science in his presentations. (It’s interesting that the believers atack skeptics and not Al Gore, or more hysterical types.)

The “theory” doesn’t need to work, especially when the crowd that it’s marketed to energetically joins in the defense of the “theory.” All it needs to do it be presented to the believers. If marketed properly then new believers can be created. This is one of the reasons that children are a target market for An Inconvenient Truth.

Somewhere in the middle of these extremes are the guys who measure the Earth’s temperature and then graph it. Now I don’t know how you could hold these measurements to the same standard as putting a probe within a few feet of your target point near a moon, but they have to be better than someone who merely needs to pursuade, right? Which brings us to the infamous Hockey Stick and NASA’s GISS measurements.

First, the Hockey Stick. Al Gore puts it up and everyone oohs and ahhs at his proof. Nevermind that…

  • It did away with a Medieval Warm Period that hundreds of peer reviewed papers show to be warmer than current times (we’ll ignore, for now, periods prior to the MWP that may have been warmer still)
  • It did away with a Little Ice Age that is at least as well supported as the MWP
  • It used very iffy math which would generate a hockey stick shape from random data.

A newer version of the Hockey Stick, featured in the IPCC 2007 policy summary had a couple of interesting features. A couple of the proxies used to help create the graph up to 1960 or so were neatly trimmed at that point. Why? Because the data from those proxies went in the wrong direction. Briffa & Co (who did the graph) hid the decline by trimming inconvenient data. At the end the blade of the hockey stick was based mostly from one tree.

It seems that the Hockey Stick was designed to the persuasion standard and not to engineering standards.

Is it any wonder that some of use question these guys?

Next up is the GISS set of rulers. One would think that an organization that could do what it does with space probes could do the same with climate studies, right? NASA has a certain well deserved reputation from the space program.

NASA recently released a report that stated that 2009 was one of the warmest years ever and that 2000-2009 was the warmest decade. Obviously if we have been warming then the most recent decade is the warmest. Keeping in mind that decent thermometers have only been generally available since 1880 or so. Nasa says…

Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade because of a strong La Nina that cooled the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to a near-record global temperatures as the La Nina diminished, according to the new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The past year was a small fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest on record, putting 2009 in a virtual tie with a cluster of other years –1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007 — for the second warmest on record.

here’s the rest of the press release

Now, if 2005 is the warmest (remember, it used to be 1934) and if 1998, ’02, ’03, ’06, ’07, and 2009 are the same, then where’s the warming? Especially with all those cool years inbetween the others?

Also, given the above and given that Dr. Hansen, the man in charge of NASA’s GISS, is an alarmist of the first order, is it any wonder that there’s some mistrust of this data? One is tempted to ask: James Hansen: Would you buy a used temperature data set from THIS man?

Posted in Where's the Warming? | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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