No, The Climate Models Can’t Do That
Posted by greg2213 on May 1, 2011
From the amazing Willis E at WUWT, a James Hansen quote on everyone’s favorite models:
Total solar irradiance (TSl) is the dominant driver of global climate, whereas both natural and anthropogenic aerosols are climatically important constituents of the atmosphere also affecting global temperature. Although the climate effects of solar variability and aerosols are believed to be nearly comparable to those of the greenhouse gases (GHGs; such as carbon dioxide and methane), they remain poorly quantified and may represent the largest uncertainty regarding climate change. …
The analysis by Hansen et al. (2005), as well as other recent studies (see, e.g., the reviews by Ramaswamy et al. 2001; Kopp et al. 2()05b; Lean et al. 2005; Loeb and Manalo-Smith 2005; Lohmann and Feichter 2005; Pilewskie et al. 2005; Bates et al. 2006; Penner et al. 2006), indicates that the current uncertainties in the TSI and aerosol forcings are so large that they preclude meaningful climate model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change. These uncertainties must be reduced significantly for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be adequately constrained (Schwartz 2004).
here’s the rest: Reality Leaves A Lot To The Imagination
As Mr. E. says, “…it does make it clear that at this point the models are not suitable for use as the basis for billion dollar decisions.”
But they are suitable if your goals are power and money.
More on the Subject:
A poll of climate scientists, working withing climate research institutes, has some interesting results – Most of them feel that the models aren’t quite there, yet: Fewer than 3 or 4 percent said they “strongly agree” that computer models produce reliable predictions of future temperatures, precipitation, or other weather events.