Another View on Climate

My Own View of Global Warming

Blinded by Common Sense

Posted by greg2213 on July 11, 2011

Apparently some wag, name of Kevin Anderson, a director of a Tyndall Centre somewhere in the U.K., sees a problem with a (completely imaginary) 4C+ rise in temperatures. The Reference Frame disposes of him quite nicely:

So the population will happily continue to rise to 9 billion by 2050. Suddenly, the global mean temperature will apparently jump from 15 °C to 20 °C, we’re told, and 8.5 billion people will suddenly die because 20 °C is surely deadly.

I wonder whether those loons actively realize what they are saying – and what their colleagues are saying – and whether at least some of them know that the likes of Mr Anderson are mentally ill. You see that the U.K. doesn’t have any counterpart of the ObamaCare if they can’t afford to store Mr Anderson in a psychiatric asylum.

The rest: Climate “scientists”: 95 percent of people fry to death at 20 °C

So if Mr. Anderson is serious, and not just practicing his worrying in order to write some bad SF book, then yeah… I’d say he’s in need of medication.

Luboš Motl also feels that a 13C increase would be fine, not that there’s any chance of it happening, but it would be fine. Given what we see when we look back at the history of this planet I see no reason to disagree. Not that I know anything, but warming is clearly far better than cooling and the world has clearly been just fine with much warmer temps.

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5 Responses to “Blinded by Common Sense”

  1. wil westermann said

    Apparently Lubos Motl has never spent 3 summer months in southern Australia. 45 degrees in the shade with a hot northerly blowing at 40 knots is no joke and only a moron living in a mild climate somewhere in the northern hemisphere would argue that 13 degrees make no difference.
    Even a few degrees would be devastating for us and I really hope that a weaker sun will lead to a slight cooling over the next few decades.

  2. Dear Wil, I have never been there but my uncle Jerry Koliha emigrated to Melbourne in 1969 which happens to be in Southern Australia.

    The annual mean temperature over there is 15 deg C, which is 8 deg C above the annual mean temperature in Pilsen where he lived before, and this 8 deg C of warming jump hasn’t caused any problems to him. He’s doing well.

    The overall record high in Melbourne is 46.4 deg C which is very high and one obviously can’t live without some cooling system or swimming – but the same is true on the opposite side when the temperature is below 0 deg C. One can’t live without some heating. 😉

    • greg2213 said

      As I understand things an average global warming of 13 degrees, which this planet has seen before in the distant past, would mean a big increase in the cooler areas and little increase in the warmer areas. The north would be far more habitable than it is now and the really warm spots would be only slightly, if at all, warmer. Southern Australia, would not increase by 13 degrees. Neither would the deserts of the world. Northern Europe, on the other hand, might be actually rather nice. Siberia might start opening ski resorts rather than being the rather uncomfortable place that it is now.

    • wil westermann said

      Dear Lubos,

      I do take your point about being cold. Having had the “pleasure” of being exposed to minus 30 degrees in Germany, I totally agree that a prolonged period of cooling would have a much bigger impact than the medieval cooling period as our present population level and complexity of food production and distribution would find it very hard to cope with global cooling.
      Here in Australia, however, the situation is very different. While the effect on the tropical regions would be minimal in both hot and cold scenarios, the more southern latitudes would really suffer:
      We are at the mercy of natural cycles of drought and floods which often have a devastating effect on food production. Here in South Australia we have a “line in the sand”, the “Goyder line”, north of which there is little possibility of agriculture due to lack of rainfall. Even south of this line many farmers “dry seed” their crops in the hope of future precipitation and a decent crop. It’s always a gamble for them and many of the young people go to the big cities in search of a more secure livelihood.
      On a smaller scale, of course people use air-conditioners in summer but the fruit and vegetables we try to grow can’t. During a mild summer like last year’s we live in paradise with bountiful crops of tomatoes, pumpkins, apples, cherries and more. When the temperature exceeds 35 degrees, however, many plants shut down and once you get over 40 degrees, you get actual burning of leaves and fruit. So many gardeners have devised ingenious shading systems or strategically planted shade trees to protect their crops and cool their houses.Please check out this site

      • greg2213 said

        I adjusted your link for you.

        As far as models go, well… take them all with a grain of salt. Also, I’m not at all sure that Aus. would become less hospitable with a global increase in temps. I’m sure that some areas, somewhere, would, but I think many more would benefit. Overall it would be a big gain for people, plants, and critters.

        Hmmm… I wonder what temp the tropics were during the last ice age…

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