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My Own View of Global Warming

Archive for the ‘AGW Hypothesis’ Category

Falsification of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame of Physics

Posted by greg2213 on July 11, 2010

Found on The Air Vent

Falsification of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame of Physics,”

International Journal of Modern Physics B, v23, n03, January 6, 2009, pp. 275-364.

Abstract

full paper is here

Related:

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The Verdict: Global Warming Doesn’t Stand Up to Reality

Posted by greg2213 on June 9, 2010

Note: We’re talking about Gore’s version of Global Warming, not the reality of ~.6C over 120 some odd years. Even that number is open to question, given the players involved, the questions about the surface record, Urban Heat Island effects, and so on.

Of course, it isn’t the reality which is driving the policies, it’s the Gore driven hype.

Via WUWT…

The Financial Post has the article:

A cross examination of global warming science conducted by the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Law and Economics has concluded that virtually every claim advanced by global warming proponents fail to stand up to scrutiny.

The cross-examination, carried out by Jason Scott Johnston, Professor and Director of the Program on Law, Environment and Economy at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, found that “on virtually every major issue in climate change science, the [reports of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] and other summarizing work by leading climate establishment scientists have adopted various rhetorical strategies that seem to systematically conceal or minimize what appear to be fundamental scientific uncertainties or even disagreements.”

The rest: Legal verdict: Manmade global warming science doesn’t withstand scrutiny

The 79 page PDF, which dismantles the AGW case, can be found here: Global Warming Advocacy Science: a Cross Examination

The WUWT post, with the usual interesting comments, is here: Legal beagle says: Manmade global warming science doesn’t withstand scrutiny

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Alarming Definitions, Proxies, Mann, and a Question

Posted by greg2213 on May 23, 2010

Jeff ID at The Air Vent remarks:

Honestly there are times when I feel sorry for Mann, his role in history will not be a good one in the long term but it was brought about by an initial mistake in his early papers.  After the accolades he received for his 98, 99 work the censored directory was created with a corrected PCA reconstruction.  What should he do, phone the UN — um world, I screwed up a little…..His reaction, of course, has been the opposite.  He doubled down, creating one reconstruction after another using math which is actually worse than the original.

So here’s the question,

Where would the IPCC be without the proxy based reconstructions?

It’s a scary question because if the climatologists were to excise the bad paleo stuff, IMHO the AGW story is strengthened rather than damaged.

Lots of good discussion regarding that on his site and I’ll add my 1 cent worth here.

The AGW story isn’t strengthened, but that depends on what you mean by AGW.

AGW = Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming. If you’re talking to one person it means one thing, if you’re talking to Al Gore, Dr. Hansen, or various extremists it means something entirely different.

And that’s the problem.

Mann’s (and Gore’s) hockey stick was never about the .6C of warming that we’ve had over the last 120 years or so. It was, and always has been about the catastrophe. The impending DOOM caused by the actions of loutish humans (and then Gore buys mansions with the energy usage of a small country…)

Two entirely separate issues.

So let’s set some definitions:

  • GW = Global Warming and is simply the state of the world warming, by whatever cause.
  • AGW = Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming. People done it. It also implies that the warming is a bad thing and that people are bad for doing it.
  • CAGW = Catastrophic AGW. This is what we saw with Gore’s fantasy-horror flick, An Inconvenient Truth. Also this is what’s typical of alarmist/extremist remarks regarding GW. WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE UNLESS WE SHAPE UP NOW!!!!
  • Alarmist = one who buys into the CAGW argument
  • Extremist/hysteric = one who buys into the extreme CAGW remarks, such as this one.
  • Denier/denialist = one who denies the reality of CAGW, but it is used and intended as an insult along the lines of one who denies reality, such as denying the existence of the Holocaust.
  • Sceptic = someone who wants a little proof supporting the concept.

There is good evidence that the world has warmed a bit, even without the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, however there is zero evidence …

  1. that there is an impending catastrophe,
  2. that there is a tipping point (unless it’s to tip down to the next ice age,)
  3. that anything about the current, slight, warming is unprecedented.

There is solid evidence that some warming is a good thing.

So is the case for AGW stengthened in Mann’s “science” disappeared? Well…

  • GW – yes, only because the hockey stick is a major distraction from reality
  • AGW – no, but energy use to debunk bad science could be used to look for what’s real regarding human effects, if any, on climate.
  • CAGW – definitely weakened, since the major support for CAGW is the hockey stick. With that gone there’s nothing left but wishful thinking on the part of the alarmist/extremist crowd.

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Is the AGW Scare Collapsing?

Posted by greg2213 on January 27, 2010

There are some interesting bits that suggest the Man-Made Global Warming scenario is starting to break down. Of course, by this I mean the Al Gore inspired, WE  MUST DO SOMETHING NOW OR WE WILL ALL DIE!!! global warming, not the few 10ths that the world might actually have warmed over the last 100 or so years.

The speed at which the AGW scenario will collapse is directly proportional to the speed at which the Worldwide Mainstream Media grabs hold of the story. If they decide that it’s juicy enough to overturn their well-established (pro-AGW) views on the issue, then they will due a lot of work on the issue.

While the MSM has been ignoring the issue there are some cracks appearing in their wall of denial. I expect more will be coming soon enough.

Australia’s Herald Sun has Ten signs that the warming scare is collapsing

Watt’s, Smith, and Co released their critique of the surface station record

Insider Andrew Weaver is getting out while the going is good

A scientist quoted by Gore throws Gore under the bus (and Gore did quote Dr. Maslowski’s wild remarks correctly.)

US House of Rep bill. If a Democrat is authoring one of these then the Warming issue is getting more interesting.

  • HR391 – To amend the Clean Air Act to provide that greenhouse gases are not subject
    to the Act, and for other purposes. By Marsha Blackburn, R, Tenn
  • HR4396 – To amend the Clean Air Act to provide that greenhouse gases are not subject to the Act, and for other purposes. Rep. Earl Pomeroy [D-ND]

Glacier claims known to be bogus

Top scientist breaks ranks…

Further damning revelations are pouring in from the gaping wound that has inflicted the fast unraveling theory of the green monster that is man made global warming…. Christy served as a UN IPCC lead author in 2001 for the 3rd assessment report.

More: top climatologist openly breaks with Climategate conspirators

Science Chief calls for honesty..

The impact of global warming has been exaggerated by some scientists and there is an urgent need for more honest disclosure of the uncertainty of predictions about the rate of climate change, according to the Government’s chief scientific adviser…

Professor Beddington said that climate scientists should be less hostile to sceptics who questioned man-made global warming. He condemned scientists who refused to publish the data underpinning their reports.

More: Science chief John Beddington calls for honesty on climate change, also on ClimateGate.com

Updates:

More to come…

Posted in AGW Hypothesis, Media | 2 Comments »

Yes, AGW is a Hypothesis, Not a Fact

Posted by greg2213 on January 16, 2010

This is from a January 16, 2007 article in American Thinker. Even though it’s from 2007 it is still 100% applicable to today and will be applicable tomorrow.

It points out the fact that the Anthropogenic Global Warming concept is a Hypothesis, not a fact. The writer also offers a simple proof of this and some important additional points to consider.

As a scientist I’ve learned never to say “never.” So human-caused global warming is always a hypothesis to hold, at least until climate science becomes mature. (Climate science is very immature right now: Physicists just don’t know how to deal with hypercomplex systems like the Earth’s weather.

Here’s the rest: Why Global Warming is Probably a Crock

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