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Debunking the Debunkers – Abrupt Climate Change

Posted by greg2213 on July 8, 2013

The Bad Astronomer took issue with an Op Ed, by Matt Ridley, in the WSJ. Unfortunately (for the BA) Ridley follows the evidence, not the consensus, and CAGW loses on the evidence (big time.)

It’s on WUWT

Here’s a comment from Mr. Ridley.

Here’s a cool comment from the WUWT page discussing inconvenient climat events over the last few thousand years, something that few alarmists have any idea have occurred. (I added the clickable links.)

Begin

Jimbo says:

Last week a friend chided me for not agreeing with the scientific consensus that climate change is likely to be dangerous.

Your friend was absolutely right about “climate change is likely to be dangerous”. It is a danger to humans and the biosphere. Loooooord help us. Below are the effects of dangerous climate change over the Holocene. Man be damned, we must act now.

Abstract – E. Davis et. al.- September 2006
An Andean ice-core record of a Middle Holocene mega-drought in North Africa and Asia

A large dust peak, dated ~4500 years ago, is contemporaneous with a widespread and prolonged drought that apparently extended from North Africa to eastern China, evidence of which occurs in historical, archeological and paleoclimatic records. This event may have been associated with several centuries of weak Asian/Indian/African monsoons, possibly linked with a protracted cooling in the North Atlantic…..
dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756406781812456
——-
Abstract – Steven L. Forman et. al. – May 2001
Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links
Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Niña-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America.
dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00092-8
——
Abstract – Hamish McGowan et. al. – 28 November 2012
Evidence of ENSO mega-drought triggered collapse of prehistory Aboriginal society in northwest Australia
…..Here we show that a mid-Holocene ENSO forced collapse of the Australian summer monsoon and ensuing mega-drought spanning approximately 1500 yrs …..
doi: 10.1029/2012GL053916
——-
Abstract – B. Van Geel et. al. – 17 January 2007
Archaeological and palaeoecological indications of an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands, and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP
….Evidence for a synchronous climatic change elsewhere in Europe and on other continents around 2650 BP is presented…..
doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199611
——-
Abstract – Martin Jakobsson et. al. – December 2010
Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice…..
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.08.016
——-
Abstract – Samuli Helama et. al. – 13 October 2008
Multicentennial megadrought in northern Europe coincided with a global El Niño–Southern Oscillation drought pattern during the Medieval Climate Anomaly
doi: 10.1130/G25329A.1
———-
Abstract – Richard B. Alleya et. al. – May 2005
The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.12.004
——-
Abstract – Scott Stine – 16 June 1994
Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time
California’s Sierra Nevada experienced extremely severe drought conditions for more than two centuries before ad ~ 1112 and for more than 140 years before ad ~ 1350…I also present similar evidence from Patagonia of drought conditions coinciding with at least the first of these dry periods in California….
doi:10.1038/369546a0
——-
Abstract – Martin Claussen et. al. – 7 December 2012
Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the Mid-Holocene

Climate variability during the present interglacial, the Holocene, has been rather smooth in comparison with the last glacial. Nevertheless, there were some rather abrupt climate changes. One of these changes, the desertification of the Saharan and Arabian region some 4–6 thousand years ago,….
doi: 10.1029/1999GL900494
——-
Abstract – Brian F. Cumming et. al. – 2 December 2002,
Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia
…After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years….
doi:10.1073/pnas.252603099
——-
Abstract – Connie A. Woodhouse et. al. – December 1998
2000 Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States
…..One must turn to the paleoclimatic record to examine the full range of past drought variability, including the range of magnitude and duration, and thus gain the improved understanding needed for society to anticipate and plan for droughts of the future. Historical documents, tree rings, archaeological remains, lake sediment, and geomorphic data make it clear that the droughts of the twentieth century, including those of the 1930s and 1950s, were eclipsed several times by droughts earlier in the last 2000 years, and as recently as the late sixteenth century. In general, some droughts prior to 1600 appear to be characterized by longer duration (i.e., multidecadal) and greater spatial extent than those of the twentieth century……
dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079%3C2693:YODVIT%3E2.0.CO;2
——-
Abstract – T. M. Shanahan – 17 April 2009
Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa
…We find that intervals of severe drought lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures. Thus the severe drought of recent decades is not anomalous in the context of the past three millennia,…..
doi: 10.1126/science.1166352
——-
Abstract – Fahu Chen et. al. – December 2001
Abrupt Holocene changes of the Asian monsoon at millennial- and centennial-scales: Evidence from lake sediment document in Minqin Basin, NW China
These rapid climatic changes may be representative of a global climatic change pattern during the Holocene.
doi: 10.1007/BF02901902

Here are the effects of dangerous CARBON DIOXIDE, a noxious dioxide.

Randall J. Donohue et. al. – 31 May, 2013
Abstract
CO2 fertilisation has increased maximum foliage cover across the globe’s warm, arid environments

[1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the ‘CO2 fertilization’ effect – the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels – is yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982–2010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analysed to remove the effect of variations in rainfall, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilisation effect is now a significant land surface process.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract

End

More About Abrupt Climate Change

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Abrupt Climate Change Over the Last 15,000 Years.

Posted by greg2213 on June 2, 2013

Alarmists love to call the modern warming “unprecedented.” This is pretty hysterical given that number of much larger and more abrupt changes over the years. The .5 to .8C over the last 150 years just doesn’t compare.

And all of those other changes (warming and cooling) were without benefit of significant CO2 changes. Thi sis another nail in the coffin of the “CO2 is the primary cause of CC” argument.

On, WUWT, the conclusion: 

(1) The ice core isotope data were hugely significant because they showed that the Younger Dryas, as well as the other late Pleistocene warming and cooling events, could not possibly be caused by human emissions of CO2 because they occurred thousands of years before such emissions had any effect on atmospheric CO2.

(2) The magnitude and intensity of multiple climatic fluctuations has been up to 20 times larger than warming during the past century.

(3) Single events, i.e., volcanic activity or cosmic impacts, cannot have caused the abrupt Dansgaard/Oerscher warming and cooling events because of the multiplicity of warm/cold events over periods of thousands of years.

(4) The absence of a time lag between the N and S Hemisphere glacial fluctuations precludes an oceanic cause and is not consistent with the North Atlantic Deep Ocean Water hypothesis for the cause of the Younger Dryas.

(5) The abruptness of the climate changes and their multiplicity could not have been caused by slow, Croll-Milankovitch orbital forcing, which occurs over many tens of thousands of years. Since fluctuations to and from full glacial climates occurred over short periods of time, clearly a cause other than the Croll-Milankovitch theory is capable of causing the Ice Ages .

The whole article is here.

The modern warming compared to prior warmings:

(see the full article for details.)

a-nice-graph Links:

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Posted in Cycles, Temerature Records | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Edited Photos, So What’s Real

Posted by greg2213 on January 28, 2012

Once upon a time the Navy took this photo:

Apparently the original caption read:

Skate (SSN-578), surfaced at the North Pole, 17 March 1959

But it seems to have morphed to:

Skate (SSN-578),taken in summer, perhaps in August 1958.

The above is from Real-Science: Navy Changes Their Caption

Innocent error by some alarmist file keeper who couldn’t conceive of the upper caption being correct?

An adjustment to better suit the Global Warming hysteria meme?

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CO2 means Life Started Recently

Posted by greg2213 on September 8, 2011

You know, this guy is onto something. This is a logical conclusion of the Al Gore version of Global Warming. Clearly life is a recent occurrence, so maybe the Creationists and/or Intelligent Design people are onto something. Either there was a creation event, after CO2 dropped to “reasonable” levels or life evolves much faster than we previously believed.

From Real Science:

CO2 levels were 10-20X higher for most of the last 600 million years.

Based on the expert testimony of our top climate morons scientists, we can be certain that all life forms were destroyed as quickly as they were created – because the weather was so extreme that no life could possibly survive. Sea levels must have been hundreds or thousands of feet higher than they are now, and hurricanes and tornadoes must have roared continuously across a drought and flood covered hot/cold landscape.

 

 

Posted in Way Back | Leave a Comment »

Greenland Temperature Trends

Posted by greg2213 on January 28, 2011

Update 3/12/13: New paper confirms Greenland is resistant to thaw

No, Greenland isn’t Melting

From a WUWT comment: (excerts added are mine)

Greenland air temps of the past:

“…the rate of warming in 1920–1930 was about 50% higher than that in 1995–2005.”
Petr Chylek et. al.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026510.shtml

We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to compare the current (1995–2005) warming period with the previous (1920–1930) Greenland warming. We find that the current Greenland warming is not unprecedented in recent Greenland history. Temperature increases in the two warming periods are of a similar magnitude, however, the rate of warming in 1920–1930 was about 50% higher than that in 1995–2005.

“The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming.”
Jason E. Box et. al.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2816.1

Meteorological station records and regional climate model output are combined to develop a continuous 168-yr (1840–2007) spatial reconstruction of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean Greenland ice sheet near-surface air temperatures. Independent observations are used to assess and compensate for systematic errors in the model output. Uncertainty is quantified using residual nonsystematic error. Spatial and temporal temperature variability is investigated on seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that volcanic cooling episodes are concentrated in winter and along the western ice sheet slope. Interdecadal warming trends coincide with an absence of major volcanic eruptions. Year 2003 was the only year of 1840–2007 with a warm anomaly that exceeds three standard deviations from the 1951–80 base period. The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming. The recent warming was, however, stronger along western Greenland in autumn and southern Greenland in winter. Spring trends marked the 1920s warming onset, while autumn leads the 1994–2007 warming. In contrast to the 1920s warming, the 1994–2007 warming has not surpassed the Northern Hemisphere anomaly. An additional 1.0°–1.5°C of annual mean warming would be needed for Greenland to be in phase with the Northern Hemispheric pattern. Thus, it is expected that the ice sheet melt rates and mass deficit will continue to grow in the early twenty-first century as Greenland’s climate catches up with the Northern Hemisphere warming trend and the Arctic climate warms according to global climate model predictions.

“We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of ~20 years and 40–100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.”
Takuro Kobashi et. al.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/n567324n1n3321h3/

Future Greenland temperature evolution will affect melting of the ice sheet and associated global sea-level change. Therefore, understanding Greenland temperature variability and its relation to global trends is critical. Here, we reconstruct the last 1,000 years of central Greenland surface temperature from isotopes of N2 and Ar in air bubbles in an ice core. This technique provides constraints on decadal to centennial temperature fluctuations. We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of ~20 years and 40–100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.

“The warmest year in the extended Greenland temperature record is 1941, while the 1930s and 1940s are the warmest decades. Two distinct cold periods, following the 1809 (‘‘unidentified’’ volcanic eruption and the eruption of Tambora in 1815 make the 1810s the coldest decade on record.”
B. M. Vinther et. al.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/greenland/vintheretal2006.pdf
[pdf]

1937
“Particulars are given regarding the big rise of winter temperatures in Greenland and its more oceanic climate during the last fifteen years.”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706327108/abstract

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The Arctic Ocean is Warming Up!

Posted by greg2213 on January 14, 2011

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

====================

Nov. 2, 1922, by The Associated Press and published in The Washington Post – 88 years ago!

From Joe Bastardi, at AccuWeather

Along the same lines…

Warm is good, cold is bad.

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Yes, It was Warmer Back Then

Posted by greg2213 on July 16, 2010

Yes, the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the modern period and it was global (and probably bounced around about as much as modern climate, despite being warmer. )

A peer-reviewed study documents the extremely warm temperatures of the Medieval Period that occurred in the California Sierra Nevada range. Scientists, working with dead tree trunks located above the current treeline, affirm California’s Medieval extreme warm temperature history, which still remains unprecedented.

The California Medieval Warming Remains Unprecedented: 3.0°C Hotter Than Modern Global Warming

The ideal, of course, would be for the world to be a couple of degrees warmer, for CO2 levels to be significantly higher, and for market forces to cause Mr. Gore’s” investments” to decline greatly in value.

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The MWP Actually Was Warmer

Posted by greg2213 on May 3, 2010

Never mind that hundreds of peer-reviewed papers have shown that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was warmer than the present period, and word-wide, certain groups of people have scoffed at the idea that there is nothing unusual about modern times, climate-wise.

Now, even Jones, Briffa, and other unimpeachable sources say that it was warmer back then (at least in Greenland.) See: The Medieval Warm Period in Greenland

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Catastrophic Ice Melt

Posted by greg2213 on May 3, 2010

In 1934

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It Was Warmer Back Then

Posted by greg2213 on April 21, 2010

The Medieval Warm Period – A global Phenomenon

Stuff from my notes:

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