Another View on Climate

My Own View of Global Warming

Posts Tagged ‘Cycles’

Periodic Oscillations in Millennial Global-Mean Temperature

Posted by greg2213 on May 17, 2011

New peer-reviewed paper ignores CO2 as a climate mechanism, concentrating on other cycles, instead. The Abstract (emphasis is mine:)

Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.

I think I’ve seen that conclusion in a few places before, from anyone who’s looked closely at ocean/solar cycles. Seems to me that if the 1990s warming was caused by these cycles coinciding, then the 2060 warming won’t be nearly as large. Brrrr…

The full PDF is available as a download from the site, look for the PDF link on the right side of the page. Go here for the paper.

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