Another View on Climate

My Own View of Global Warming

Posts Tagged ‘Glaciers’

Bond Events, Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Climate Cycles, and stuff

Posted by greg2213 on January 7, 2011

Pretty much everyone agrees that the warming we’ve seen over the last 130 year or so is on the order of .7C. The argument is over what caused it and where it’s going.

So then what would one make of increases, and declines, that are ten times (or more) greater and that happen in 1/10th the time (or less?) (Also see 1500 year cycles.)

WUWT have a nifty post covering some of these events and there’s more good stuff in the comments.

Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age climate jumps.”

“The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climatic system has been well established by research over the last decade, but this new thinking is little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of natural and social scientists and policy-makers.” (“Abrupt Climate Change – Inevitable Surprises”, Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002, ISBN: 0-309-51284-0, 244 pages, Richard B. Alley, chair.)

The rest: On “Trap-Speed”, ACC and the SNR

Vostok Ice Core, Antarctic: (click to enlarge)

Vostok Ice Core Warming Periods

 

At the recent end of the climate cycle there is the Younger Dryas event. The Earth was emerging from the last ice age, things were warming up, and the it rapidly dropped into full=blown ice age conditions for another 1200 years.

Apparently the recovery was pretty rapid, too.

What caused it? No one knows. Some have an impact hypothesis, and there’s an idea that giant glacial lakes flooded the Northern Atlantic with fresh water, cutting off all circulation, leading to the cooling. The problem is that the lake outflow seems to have been blocked by ice. From the comments:

This one has been out there for some time and keeps being repeated, but Thomas V Lowell showed that the St Lawrence River was blocked by ice during the Younger-Dryas. [Revised Deglacial Chronology of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and Implications for Catastrophic Meltwater Discharge as Triggers for Abrupt Climate Change,” Eos Trans AGU 86 (52) Fall Meet. Supple., Abstract (2005): F1234″ — This from “Sudden Cold” by climatologist Rodney Chilton (2009)]

A second study that involved a simulation of meltwater originating from the Laurentide Ice Sheet did not produce any appreciable meltwater during the entire 15,000 to 8,000 BP interval. [T.C. Moore (2000)]

The northern route at least appears to have suffered the same fate as the St. Lawrence in also being blocked by ice until well after the Younger-Dryas ended. [Thomas V. Lowell, ibid]

Fun stuff.

 

Posted in Cycles | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Greenland (ice) is Melting. So What?

Posted by greg2213 on May 23, 2010

From a WUWT post on the GRACE satellites measuring changes of the Greenland ice cap (more about GRACE here.)

Which sounds worse (more catastrophic?)

  1. … the island has been losing weight, an average of 183 gigatons (or 200 cubic kilometers) — in ice — annually during the past six years. That’s one third the volume of water in Lake Erie every year…  or
  2. …This is an annual loss of 0.008%, and a time to total loss of 12,000 years…

Gee… 12,000 years to the melting of the ice cap. Ooooo….

(we’ll ignore possible sources of error in the measurements.)

And a massive loss of Greenland ice would be a bad thing, because…? Sea level rise? Over 12,000 years I think we can adapt to a few feet of sea level rise. Unless, of course, our economies have been destroyed by our various governments, but that’s another post.

We could go back to farming Greenland, like the Vikings did. A warmer world would be a very nice thing.

The problem, of course, is that when the cooling sets in and drops us back into a “little ice age,” or a real ice age, melting Greenland ice will no longer be of interest. Not that it will be melting, anymore. Major cooling will put a lot more pressure on everything than warming will.

A nice fantasy: enviro-alarmists drop the catastrophic hype that they automatically add to all of their environmental statements and base those statements on reality and with proper context. Won’t happen, I know, but I did say it was a fantasy.

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Catastrophic Ice Melt

Posted by greg2213 on May 3, 2010

In 1934

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7-15C in Just Decades

Posted by greg2213 on April 21, 2010

The Al Gore View of Global Warming basically states that the world is doomed, unless (snarky remarks deleted.) The ward does seem to have warmed by  maybe .6C or so over the last 120 some odd years. The Gore crowd claims this is unprecedented, rational people point out that the historical record says that it isn’t.

As I mentioned in the previous post, 1500 year cycles, there were a number of times during the last ice ages where temps rose 7-8C in a matter of decades. Before SUVs were invented or any fossil fuel was being burned.

I found this in a WUWT comment:

“The Greenland (Arctic) and Vostok (Antarctic) ice cores are particularly informative, offering fine temporal resolution and continuity. This has revealed surprising oscillations of climate on a millennial scale within the main 100-kyr cycle. The Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) identifies some 24 interstadials through the last ice age with average temperature rising rapidly by ~7 C over just decades. Further ice and sediment cores from around the world are demonstrating the global scale of these major climatic events.”

From: Hewitt, G. 2000. The genetic legacy of the Quarternary ice ages. NATURE, Vol. 405, 22 June 2000 (www.nature.com)

Here’s a  2004 paper from the same author (and it’s a Royal Society paper)

Our climate has been cooling for ca. 60Myr, with the Antarctic ice sheet forming ca. 35 Ma and the Arctic icecap growing from ca. 3 Ma. The Quaternary Period has been dominated by Ice Ages, which involve repeated global cooling and increasing advances of these ice sheets. These oscillations are paced by regular eccentricities in the Earth’s orbit around the sun every 100, 41 and 21 kyr. The large ice sheets, surrounding permafrost, lower global temperature and reduced water availability caused great changes in the distribution of species, which can be seen in the fossil record (Bennett 1997; Williams et al. 1998). Recent work with cores from ice sheets and sea beds confirms the effects of millennial-scale change in climate nested within the main 100 kyr cycle. These involved changes of as much as 7–15 °C over a few decades, which then lasted for hundreds of years, and there is fossil evidence that these, including the Younger Dryas ca. 11 ka, caused shifts in species distributions.

Full paper (PDF) here: Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary

7-15C over a few decades, from perfectly nature causes, and we’re supposed to hand over the world’s economies to Al Gore & Co over Zero.6C?

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1500 Year warming Cooling Cycles

Posted by greg2213 on April 18, 2010

While reading some stuff on volcanoes and climate change, specifically Toba, I came across this Wiki article on Dansgaard-Oeschger events. D-O events are warming periods that appear in the Greenland ice cores. Temps warmed by as much as 8C over periods of around 40 years, then dropped again over the next couple hundred years.In the current interglacial these are referred to as Bond events.

These cycles don’t appear in the Antarctic ice cores, or if they do then they’re very subtle. This makes sense if the D-O events are caused by northern oceanic changes.

The little ice age of ~400 to 200 years ago has been interpreted by some as the cold part of a D-O cycle, putting us in a period of warming climate (Bond et al.. 1999).

Posted in Cycles | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

New Scientists Mag Backpedals on Climategate?

Posted by greg2213 on January 16, 2010

New Scientist Mag, well known for it’s strongly supportive stance of the AGW hypothesis, seems to have backpedaled somewhat on the “Himalayan Glaciers Gone by 2035” statements. They also seem to have acknowledged that Climategate has damaged the credibility of the “climate scientists.”

Here’s the story: New Scientist Magazine Backpeddles In CYA Move and Acknowledges Climate Science Has Been Damaged by the Climategate Emails

Speaking of Climategate, there’s a new book out on that very subject. Check out the WUWT announcement, here: first book on Climategate

Update: JoNova chimes in on the subject, points out that the story may be getting some traction, and adds some good points about the “quality” of the  IPPC process. WUWT also has an update on the story and more than a few comments.

Update: WUWT prints IPCC “retraction” of glacier story. IPCC admits error on Himalayan glacier melt fiasco

Posted in Climategate, IPCC | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Melting Ice, Seals in Trouble, Radical Changes…

Posted by greg2213 on January 15, 2010

Washington Times reports on upcoming climate disaster:

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

Oh, wait, that was from 1922…

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