Warming? Cooling? Which is really Next?

For some background on warming cooling media cycles, see this post, then the following will make more sense.

OK, you’re back. It’s been settled that CAGW is bunk. So what is real? Is the world warming a bit or cooling a bit? (We’ll pretend, for the moment, that a “global temperature” actually has some meaning.)

Let’s assume that we’re entering a cooling phase, especially since there’s been no warming for awhile. In a few year the media will have forgotten the warming scare and will be writing up the cooling. A few more years and the “new ice age” headlines will be popping out, just like they did before, more than once.

Roughly 30 years from now it will likely start warming again. Give it a few years and the ice age headlines will be ignored and a new warming scare will begin.

In my opinion the media is looking for sensational headlines, on the idea that those headlines will sell more product. In addition, they are, politically, overwhelmingly on the side of the party which is pushing the scare, either scare (said party starts with a “D.”) For this reason I don’t think we can expect our media to change. Whichever way the climate seems to be going we can count on wild headlines appearing. Perhaps their best value is in comic relief.

I think we’re at the beginning of a new media cycle. Those of us who are skeptical of GW “science” should, I think, remain skeptical of the cooling stories, too. Especially when Mr. Gore and Co. start telling us that we have to make him rich, destroy our economies, and hand governmental power to the UN in order to fend off the coming ice age.

 

30 Years of Global Cooling

Ah, it would have been nice to keep that warming trend. Darn these natural cycles.

On Hiding Past Cooling Trends

There are several reports of older print articles discussing the steep cooling period from about 1940 to about 1978 (which gave rise to the “coming ice age” scare of the 70s.) One of the reasons the cooling period is interesting is because of several more recent adjustments to make it warmer (and boost the alarmist cause.)

JoNova discusses it here:

Human emissions of carbon dioxide began a sharp rise from 1945. But, temperatures, it seems, may have plummeted over half the globe during the next few decades. Just how large or how insignificant was that decline?

here’s the rest: Hide the decline and rewrite history?

She also has a followup post: Where did the decline go?

WattsUpWithThat? also has the story: Weather balloon data backs up missing decline found in old magazine

And Hide the Decline has even more detail and some interesting comments.He also points out why the measurements of the cooling are probably good.

Next to the historic data war on the Medieval Warm Period, the data war on the 1940-78 perhaps stands as the most bitter and intense climate disagreement.

Here’s the rest: Decline: Temperature decline 1940-78, the cold data-war

Other posts on the topic:

• ’34 was/wasn’t/was/wasn’t warmer – Has there been some fudging of the numbers?
• The Ice Age scare of the 70s
• Media accounts of Warming/cooling/warming/cooling

The Snowball Earth Could Make for Permanent Ski Conditions

If you Google (or Bing or Y!) Snowball Earth (or go here) you’ll find something akin to the following idea. Some 700+ million year ago the Earth was covered in ice. That ice extended all the way to the equator. Some say it’s happened at least twice. Around 715 million year back and again at around 600 million years.

WUWT has a post in the subject: “sea ice extended to the equator 716.5 million years ago” Fascinating stuff, i think. It’s also likely that CO2 was far higher in those days, so why did it the world freeze over? There have been a few other ice ages since then, long before the current set, despite higher CO2.The article doesn’t actually say anything about CO2, though the graphic does.

I’ve seen some remarks by Geologists who suggest that land-masses at the poles are necessary for ice ages, along with certain formations of the continents. Circulation is cut off and the world cools. Enough ice forms, albedo increases, the cooling accelerates, and you have an ice age (I’m way over simplifying here.)

Questions…

The article and the commenters raise some questions:

1. Are there any papers which contradict the idea? One commenter said a paper has already debunked it.
2. Are there any other hypotheses that would explain the scientists’ observations? Axial tilt? Weaker sun combined with…? Asteroid hit causing massive planet-wide volcanic activity, combined with the correct placement of the land masses?
3. The article admits that they don’t know the triggering causes for the Earth becoming a snowball, or for leaving that phase, though there is a vast igneous province that suspiciously dates to about the same time. Super volcano?
4. A commenter says that while Geologists generally believe that CAGW is complete bunk, biologists are believers. Why? I have a biology degree (ancient, moldy, but still there.) I’d think that biologists would be the first group to be hollering that more CO2 is a good thing and that life shows remarkable adaptability.
5. Another commenter states that when the current series of ice ages ends (in a few million years) CO2 will bounce back to a more normal 1200ppm to 2500 ppm. Why? Outgassing from the oceans?

Global Cooling for Next 30 Years?

From WattsUpWithThat:

Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”. That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.

According to (the article) he believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.

Here’s the rest: IPCC scientist: Global cooling headed our way for the next 30 years?

Note: Latif essentially says that he was misquoted. WUWT has the updates, so click through to read them.

Now, if the current cooling trend is caused by various natural factors that are suppressing Warming, then it’s reasonable to conclude that similar factors enhanced the warming in the 80’s and 90’s.

Piers Corbyn 100 Year Forecast

Piers Corbyn, of WeatherAction.com, has made a climate/weather forecast for the next 100 years. It will probably be more accurate than anything the IPCC will come up with.

From June 26, 2009